The article outlines the limitations of static scenario planning in modern business environments characterized by rapid and unpredictable changes, known as the VUCA world. Static plans, often updated annually, are prone to becoming obsolete due to shifting economic, technological, and geopolitical factors, which creates risks like analysis paralysis, cognitive bias, and disconnection from execution.
It traces the history of scenario planning from its Cold War military origins through corporate use, noting that while intellectual foundations remain strong, practical applications have not kept pace with the velocity of change. Several industry failures illustrate how static planning failed firms across retail, automotive, finance, pharma, and energy sectors.
To address these challenges, the article advocates for continuous foresight—a dynamic, always-on system that integrates real-time data from multiple domains, uses driver-based digital twin models, and ties scenario triggers to operational responses. This approach reduces decision time, enables better resource allocation, and enhances organizational resilience. CIOs are encouraged to demand foresight systems capable of rolling forecasts, mathematical modeling of constraints, cross-functional visibility, and seamless connection to execution tools, thereby building muscle memory for rapid adaptation and smarter planning.
👉 Pročitaj original: CIO Magazine
